Simulation results: collection analysis component analysis

There are several choices you can make about how you view the results. Not all the choices affect all the results you can see. This table shows the details. means that the option affects the analysis that shown. means that the choice is displayed, but doesn't affect the analysis

The percentile you choose affects the statistics that are shown in the Summary and Results by year sections of the results. You can select any value from 1% to 49%, and the results for the symmetric percentiles are displayed. For example, if you select 5%, the 5% and 95% percentile values will be shown.

Use this section to set goals for emissions, cost or discounted cost. The tool will analyse how likely these goals are to be met for the target year.

Annual goals are met if the emissions, cost or discounted cost are less than (or equal to) the specified goal in the target year.

Cumulative goals are met if the cumulative emissions, cost or discounted cost are less than (or equal to) the specified goal in the target year.

This section shows you the parameters that were used to specify the simulation whose results you are analysing. The parameters are explained in more detail on the help page for Specifying scenarios.

The following parameters are displayed, followed by the date and time at which the simulation was run.

The following parameters are displayed for the scenario:

This section shows a statistical summary of the simulation results for each source. The summary that is shown depends on the selected target year, percentile, and whether you are showing cumulative or annual results.

For each source in the emitter group,the following statistics are shown for the selected type of emissions or costs (cumulative or annual) in the selected year: mean, median, lower and upper percentiles.

This section shows a chart of simulated emissions, cost or discounted cost by year. The emissions, cost or discounted cost that are charted are either annual emissions, cost or discounted cost during the year or cumulative emissions or costs by the end of the year.

The selected target year is indicated on the chart by a vertical line, and the relevant goal by a horizontal line. Use the checkboxes above the chart to display or hide these lines.

You can choose how many years of data to show using the slider beneath the chart. The data that is shown always includes the selected target year.

The chart shows the emissions, cost or discounted cost for each source in the emitter group.

The central line for each source is the median emissions or cost for that year. The lower and upper limits that are displayed are the symmetric percentiles you have selected. For example, if you select a percentile value of 5%, the lower limit of the chart will show the 5% percentile and the upper limit of the chart will show the 95% percentile.

You can select which sources to show on the chart by clicking on the chart legend.

You can use the ACC Carbon Tool to analyse how likely it is that emissions or cost goals will be achieved. You can specify goals for annual and cumulative emissions, cost or discounted cost.

The analysis is performed for each source in the emitter group.

There are two measures of success for annual goals.

If the annual emissions fluctuate, an annual goal can be met in the target year but exceeded in a subsequent year which has higher emissions. Meeting an annual goal from the target year is therefore less likely than meeting it in that year.

There are two measures of success for cumulative goals.

If there are negative emissions, a cumulative goal can be met by the target year but exceeded in an earlier year if there are net negative emissions in the intervening interval. Meeting a cumulative goal up to the target year is therefore less likely than meeting it by that year.