Simulation results: collection analysis component analysis
There are three different ways you can view the simulation results for the collection analysis: a summary table, a chart of yearly emissions or costs, and the probability of achieving specified goals. The top part of the Simulation results page allows you to interactively select some of the details of the results you see, and the bottom half shows the results themselves.
Introduction
There are several choices you can make about how you view the results. Not all the choices affect all the results you can see. This table shows the details. means that the option affects the analysis that shown. means that the choice is displayed, but doesn't affect the analysis
Option | Summary | Results by year | Success probabilities |
---|---|---|---|
Target year | |||
Percentile | |||
Annual / Cumulative | |||
Emissions / Cost / Discounted cost | |||
Goals |
Percentile
The percentile
you choose affects the statistics that are shown
in the Summary and
Results by year
sections of the results. You can
select any value from 1% to 49%, and the results for the symmetric percentiles
are displayed. For example, if you select 5%, the 5% and 95% percentile values
will be shown.
Overview
Use this section to set goals for emissions,
cost or discounted cost. The
tool will analyse how likely these goals are to be met for the
target year
.
Annual goals
Annual goals are met if the emissions,
cost or discounted cost are less than
(or equal to) the specified goal in the target year
.
Cumulative goals
Cumulative goals are met if the cumulative
emissions,
cost or discounted cost are less than
(or equal to) the specified goal in the target year
.
Overview
This section shows you the parameters that were used to specify the simulation whose results you are analysing. The parameters are explained in more detail on the help page for Specifying scenarios.
Run parameters
The following parameters are displayed, followed by the date and time at which the simulation was run.
- Start year
- Years
- Simulation
Scenario parameters
The following parameters are displayed for the scenario:
- Emitter group
- Carbon pricing, discount rate
- Emissions changes:
- Type, apply change?
- Start, stop
- Level, spread
Statistics
This section shows a statistical summary of the simulation
results for each source
.
The summary that is shown depends on the selected target year
,
percentile
, and whether you are showing cumulative
or annual
results.
For each source
in the emitter group
,the following
statistics are shown for the selected type of emissions or costs (cumulative
or annual
) in the selected year
:
mean,
median,
lower and upper percentiles
.
Time series
This section shows a chart of simulated emissions, cost or
discounted cost by year. The emissions, cost or discounted cost that are charted
are either annual
emissions, cost or discounted cost during the
year or cumulative
emissions or costs by the end of the year.
Target year and goal
The selected target year
is indicated on the chart
by a vertical line, and the relevant goal
by a horizontal line. Use
the checkboxes above the chart to display or hide these lines.
Years to show
You can choose how many years of data to show using the slider
beneath the chart. The data that is shown always includes the selected
target year
.
Chart
The chart shows the emissions, cost or discounted cost for each
source
in the emitter group
.
The central line for each source is the median
emissions or cost for that year. The lower and upper limits that are displayed
are
the symmetric percentiles
you have selected. For example,
if you select a percentile
value of 5%, the lower limit of the
chart will show the 5% percentile and the upper limit of the chart
will show the 95% percentile.
You can select which sources to show on the chart by clicking on the chart legend.
Overview
You can use the ACC Carbon Tool to analyse how likely it is
that emissions or cost goals will be achieved. You can specify
goals
for
annual and cumulative
emissions,
cost or discounted cost.
The analysis is performed for each source
in
the emitter group
.
Annual goals
There are two measures of success for annual goals.
-
An annual goal is met in the
target year
if the relevant emissions, cost or discounted cost are less than or equal to the specifiedgoal
in that year. -
An annual goal is met from the
target year
if the relevant emissions, cost or discounted cost are less than or equal to the specifiedgoal
in that year and every subsequent year.
If the annual emissions fluctuate, an annual goal can be met in
the target year
but exceeded in a subsequent year which has
higher emissions. Meeting an annual goal from the
target year
is therefore less likely than meeting it
in that year.
Cumulative goals
There are two measures of success for cumulative goals.
-
A cumulative goal is met by the
target year
if the relevant cumulative emissions, cost or discounted cost are less than or equal to the specifiedgoal
in that year. -
A cumulative goal is met up to the
target year
if the relevant cumulative emissions, cost or discounted cost do not exceed the specifiedgoal
in that year or any previous year.
If there are negative emissions, a cumulative goal can be met
by
the target year
but exceeded in an earlier year if there are
net negative emissions in the intervening interval.
Meeting a cumulative goal up to the
target year
is therefore less likely than meeting it
by that year.