Simulation results: component analysis collection analysis

There are several choices you can make about how you view the results. Not all the choices affect all the results you can see. This table shows the details. means that the option affects the analysis that shown. means that the choice is displayed, but doesn't affect the analysis

All results are shown for both scenarios — Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, where they exist. This enables comparisons between the two scenarios.

The percentile you choose affects the statistics that are shown in the Summary and Results by year sections of the results. You can select any value from 1% to 49%, and the results for the symmetric percentiles are displayed. For example, if you select 5%, the 5% and 95% percentile values will be shown.

All results are shown for the selected source. Select All in the source dropdown to see the statistics for all sources combined.

If the selected source is present in the emitter group for only one of the scenarios, the results for the scenario that does not include it will be blank.

Use this section to set goals for emissions, cost or discounted cost. The tool will analyse how likely these goals are to be met for the target year.

Annual goals are met if the emissions, cost or discounted cost are less than (or equal to) the specified goal in the target year.

Cumulative goals are met if the cumulative emissions, cost or discounted cost are less than (or equal to) the specified goal in the target year.

This section shows you the parameters that were used to specify the simulation whose results you are analysing. The parameters are explained in more detail on the help page for Specifying scenarios.

The following parameters are displayed, followed by the date and time at which the simulation was run.

The following parameters are displayed for the scenario:

This section shows a statistical summary of the simulation results. The summary that is shown depends on the selected target year, percentile, and source.

Each set of statistics displays the mean and median emissions or cost, together with the emissions or cost at the lower and upper percentiles that you have selected.

Statistics are shown for both annual and cumulative emissions, cost or discounted cost.

Three sets of statistics are shown:

This section shows a chart of simulated emissions or costs by year. The emissions or costs that are charted depend on the selected source, and are either annual emissions or costs during the year or cumulative emissions or costs by the end of the year.

The selected target year is indicated on the chart by a vertical line, and the relevant goal by a horizontal line. Use the checkboxes above the chart to display or hide these lines.

You can choose how many years of data to show using the slider beneath the chart. The data that is shown always includes the selected target year.

The chart shows the emissions, cost or discounted cost for both the simulated scenarios — Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.

The central line for each scenario is the median emissions or cost for that year. The lower and upper limits that are displayed are the symmetric percentiles you have selected. For example, if you select a percentile value of 5%, the lower limit of the chart will show the 5% percentile and the upper limit of the chart will show the 95% percentile.

You can select which scenarios to show on the chart by clicking on the chart legend.

This section shows a chart of the distribution of simulated emissions or costs for the selected target year. The emissions or costs that are charted depend on the selected source, and are either annual emissions or cost during the year or cumulative emissions or costs by the end of the year.

The selected percentiles do not affect the emissions or costs that are charted, but they are indicated on the chart by vertical lines.

The chart shows the emissions or costs for both the simulated scenarios — Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.

The distribution for each scenario is a frequency analysis of the simulation results. The distributions that are displayed are generally smoother than the actual distributions — for example, the peaks of triangular distributions typically appear truncated. The chart should be thus be treated as indicative.

You can select which scenarios to show on the chart by clicking on the chart legend.

You can use the ACC Carbon Tool to analyse how likely it is that emissions or cost goals will be achieved. You can specify goals for annual and cumulative emissions, cost or discounted cost.

The analysis is performed for both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.

There are two measures of success for annual goals.

If the annual emissions fluctuate, an annual goal can be met in the target year but exceeded in a subsequent year which has higher emissions. Meeting an annual goal from the target year is therefore less likely than meeting it in that year.

There are two measures of success for cumulative goals.

If there are negative emissions, a cumulative goal can be met by the target year but exceeded in an earlier year if there are net negative emissions in the intervening interval. Meeting a cumulative goal up to the target year is therefore less likely than meeting it by that year.